The World Steel Association (WSA) has recently revised the October 2018 forecasts and formally announced new figures in April 2019 meeting. Global demand in for finished steel is slated to have a 1.3% increase (reaching 1,734 MT), and up to 1,750 MT in 2020. Anticipated growth for the current year is around 53 MT, originating mostly from the Asian region which forms 69% global steel consumption this year.
The major two players are China and India, projecting consistent steel consumption even regarding falling GDP growth. In China, the growth opt towards investment-orientated, due to the substantial real estate investment that boosted steel demand by 54 MT in 2018. India’s demand is not dissimilar to the earlier figures in 2018, but with the next few years plan for infrastructure growth, the implication leans towards picking up the pace nevertheless. This has been a regular occurence of economic growth in many countries, and only implies for a not uniform pattern of growth in the next two years.
The report provided by WSA summarizes country-wise assessment of steel intensity of GDP, by dividing apparent steel usage volume by millions of real GDP in US dollar. For Vietnam to have a quite low GDP level compared to the region, it may not surprise to not have the name on the top-5, but still stays in quite a promising position in the list.
With the pressure from excess capacity in supply and strain due to the US-China conflict lately, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) assessed current capacity utilisation stands at 81.4% – making the adverse implications respectively minimized. An estimation also indicates of approximately 88 MT of fresh capacities, involving 107 proposals, are planned to be activated.
Source: Financial Express